追加緩和6兆円の影響力はどのくらい??

経済

6兆円の金融緩和

3/16の正午に会合が開かれ6兆円の追加緩和が行われる事が発表されました。
日本のGDPが約487兆円ほどなのでGDPの約1.2%ほどのお金を市場に投入する予定です。

GDPの約1.2%のお金で景気は変わるのか?

これのヒントとなるのが、2018年に内閣府の計量分析室から発表された経済財政モデルです。
政策効果を調べるには、計量経済モデルが使われます。
例えば今回のように、GDPの約1%を市場に投入する
実質政府支出について実質GDPの1%相当を1年間だけ増やし、
その後、標準ケ ースと同じ水準に戻す場合 」だと、
一年目の実質GDPは+1.05%となります。

その他にも、

消費税減税(-1%ポイント)の場合、
一年目の実質GDP→+0.27%、

短期金利引き下げ(-1%ポイント)の場合、
一年目の実質GDP→+0.12%、

個人所得税減税(名目GDPの1%相当)の場合、
一年目の実質GDP→+0.59%、

法人税減税の(名目GDPの1%相当)場合、
一年目の実質GDP→+0.22、

となります。
お金を直接市場に投入する方が減税より効果的なことが分かります。

アメリカの市場はどうなったのか?

16日の米株式相場は急反落。1987年以来の大幅な下げとなりました。
大統領は米経済がリセッション(景気後退)に陥る可能性があるとの見方も示したこともあり、
ダウ平均は約3,000ドル安、S&P総合500種.SPXは約12%安
となりました。

16日夜にテレビ会議システムを使い緊急会議したG7

安倍総理によれば、

「(オリンピックを)完全な形で実施することでG7で一致をした」
「今回の戦いは大変手ごわい相手だが、G7で一致結束して国際社会でともに戦っていけば必ず打ち勝つことができるという認識で一致した」

「完全な形での実施」でと言うと、やはり延期でしょうか?

2020年の東京オリンピックで32回目の開催となります。

過去に中止はあったのか?

100年以上の歴史を持つオリンピックで中止があったのは過去4回です。(ちなみに延期は1回)
中止、延期の理由は全てが戦争関連です。
今回は戦争関連では無いですが、平和の祭典の代名詞と言われるオリンピックが、
世界混乱の中で開催するとは考えにくいです。

最後に

ブルームバーグによれば、

日銀は、各国の中央銀行
米連邦準備制度、欧州中央銀行、イングランド銀行、カナダ銀行、スイス国立銀行と共に、
米ドル・スワップ取り決めを通じた流動性供給を拡充するための
協調行動も3/16朝に発表した。
主要国の中央銀行が協調してドル資金の供給強化に乗り出すことで市場の安定確保を図る。

スワップ … 取引した通貨の金利水準の違いから生じる損益のことです。

世界一帯となり金融危機から救ってもらいたいです!

経済財政モデルURL
ブルームバーグURL

追記

菅官房長官によると、

「IOC=国際オリンピック委員会に対して、確信を持って開催を決めてもらえるよう、政府として努力をしていく。大会に出場する選手も、いろいろな報道によってとまどいがある。そういったことが払拭(ふっしょく)されるよう、しっかりと取り組む」

とのことです。
具体的な解決策があるのか、それともこれから見つけていくのかが謎ですが、
開催を決定するなら努力などの精神論ではなく選手、観客、開催地に住んでる人のため、
少しでも良いのでどんな具体策があるか発表していただきたかったです。

NHK NEWS WEB

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